The New Old Age Blog: Study: More to Meal Delivery Than Food

What’s a simpler idea than Meals on Wheels? Older, lower-income people who have trouble driving, cooking or shopping — or paying for food — sign up with a local agency. Each day, volunteers or paid staff come by and drop off a hot lunch. Federal and state dollars and local charities foot the bill.

At the Mobile Meals of Essex headquarters in my town in New Jersey on a recent morning, staffers were stuffing slices of whole wheat bread, pints of low-fat milk and containers of sliced peaches into paper bags. Next, they would ladle the day’s entree — West Indian curried chicken with brown rice and broccoli — onto aluminum trays.

Drivers in vans would fan out through the county, from downtown Newark through the sprawling suburbs, delivering the meals to 475 clients.

The benefit goes beyond food, of course. When his clients answer the door, often using walkers and canes, “I ask them how their morning’s going,” said a driver, Louis Belfiore, who would make 31 stops this day. “I give them their meal, I say, ‘Have a good day.’ They tell me, ‘You have a nice day, too.’”

This may represent the only face-to-face social interaction some homebound people have in the course of a day. And if they don’t come to the door, a series of phone calls ensues. “We’ve had people yell back, ‘I’m on the floor and I can’t get up.’ It doesn’t happen only in commercials,” said Gail Gonnelli, the program’s operations director.

Meals on Wheels advocates have always believed that something this fundamental – a hot meal, a greeting, another set of eyes – can help keep people in their homes longer.

But they didn’t have much evidence to point to, until a couple of Brown University health researchers crunched numbers — from Medicare, states and counties, the federal Administration on Aging and more than 16,000 nursing homes — from 2000 to 2009, publishing their findings in the journal Health Services Research.

The connection they discovered between home-delivered meals and the nursing home population will come as welcome news (though not really news) to Meals on Wheels believers: States that spent more than the average to deliver meals showed greater reductions in the proportion of nursing home residents who didn’t need to be there.

The researchers call these people “low-care” residents. Most people living in nursing homes require around-the-clock skilled care, and policymakers have been pushing to find other ways to care for those who don’t. Still, in 2010 about 12 percent of long-term nursing home patients — a proportion that varies considerably by state — didn’t need this level of care.

“They’re not fully dependent,” explained a co-author of the study, Vincent Mor. “They could be cared for in a community setting, whether that’s assisted living or with a few hours of home care.”

That’s how most older people prefer to live, which is reason enough to try to reserve nursing homes for those who can’t survive any other way. But political budget cutters should love Meals on Wheels, too. For every additional $25 a state spends on home-delivered meals each year per person over 65, the low-care nursing home population decreases by a percentage point, the researchers calculated — a great return on investment.

“We spend a lot on crazy medical interventions that don’t have as much effect as a $5 meal,” Dr. Mor concluded. With this data, “we’re able to see this relationship for the first time.”

(Co-author Kali Thomas — herself a volunteer Meals on Wheels driver in Providence, R.I. — has compiled a state by state list, posted on the Brown University LTCfocus.org Web site, showing how much states could save on Medicaid by delivering more meals.)

Sadly, though, appropriations for home-delivered meals are not increasing. The program served more than 868,000 people in 2010, the latest numbers available. But federal financing through the Older Americans Act has been flat for most of the decade, while food and gas costs — and the number of older people — have risen.

Given current budget pressures, advocates hope they can just hold the line (the “sequester” cuts to the federal budget are still looming unless Congress and the White House can reach agreement on the debt limit and a spending plan). Already, “we’ve seen millions and millions fewer meals,” said Tim Gearan, senior legislative representative at AARP. “Cuts from five-day service to three-day service. A lot more frozen food, which can be inappropriate for people who can’t operate ovens and microwaves. It’s been hard to watch.”

My urban/suburban county, Ms. Gonnelli said, maintains a waiting list: There are always about 65 seniors who qualify for Meals on Wheels, but there is no money to provide the food.

It can be a big step for an older person or his family to acknowledge that they need this kind of basic help and apply. It must be difficult, I said to Ms. Gonnelli, who has run the program for 15 years, to tell applicants she can’t help feed them.

“You have no idea,” she said.


Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

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DealBook: The Banker Who Put His Faith in Armstrong

When Lance Armstrong’s interview with Oprah Winfrey about his suspected use of illegal performance-enhancing drugs is broadcast on Thursday, an investment banker will most likely be watching it very carefully (and nervously): Thomas Weisel.

Mr. Weisel is a legend in finance and Silicon Valley. He was the banker behind Yahoo’s public offering and some of the biggest deals during the dot-com bubble. He famously sold the firm he ran, Montgomery Securities, for $1.2 billion in 1997. And he sold his next firm, Thomas Weisel Partners, for $300 million to Stifel Financial in 2010.

But it is Mr. Weisel’s extracurricular activity that connects him to the news of the moment: he was Mr. Armstrong’s biggest financial backer and the single individual most responsible for the money machine that propelled Mr. Armstrong’s career.

Depending on what Mr. Armstrong says in the interview about his purported doping, Mr. Weisel, who was a co-owner of the United States Postal Service Pro Cycling Team through a cycling management firm that he helped found called Tailwind Sports, could be subject along with his partners to lawsuits from corporate sponsors seeking millions of dollars. Already, there is a False Claims Act case contending that Mr. Armstrong and the team defrauded the Postal Service.

Perhaps more anxiety-producing is what Mr. Weisel may have known, or should have known, about a team that for years ran “the most sophisticated, professionalized and successful doping program that sport has ever seen,” according to the United States Anti-Doping Agency.

Its report last year did not name Mr. Weisel, but did say that Mr. Armstrong was assisted by a “small army of enablers, including doping doctors, drug smugglers, and others within and outside the sport and on his team.”

Mr. Armstrong is expected to admit to doping in an effort to persuade officials to lift his lifetime ban from Olympic sports. To do so, however, he would probably need to lay out in explicit detail how the program worked and implicate those who were part of it. Late Monday, The New York Times reported that Mr. Armstrong had confessed in the interview with Ms. Winfrey that he used performance-enhancing drugs. The Times also reported that he was in discussions with the Justice Department to possibly testify in a federal whistle-blower case against several team officials and owners, including Mr. Weisel.

Mr. Weisel is currently not talking. When I called Mr. Weisel seeking a comment, his assistant told me: “He’s not commenting. And he’s not returning any calls.”

For a glimpse of the way Mr. Weisel thinks about performance-enhancing drugs in cycling, here’s what he had to say about the matter four years ago: “Handle the problem below the surface and keep the image of the sport clean,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “In the U.S. sports — baseball, basketball, football — most fans couldn’t care less.”

For Mr. Weisel, the team and Mr. Armstrong were an all-consuming passion. He would go every year to the Tour de France and at times travel in the team’s pacer car, occasionally yelling instructions to Mr. Armstrong over the radio system. He rode the team’s bus, ate meals with them and ultimately celebrated each year’s victory. On the wall of his office in San Francisco, he displayed Mr. Armstrong’s yellow jerseys.

Always the consummate banker, Mr. Weisel even tried to help Mr. Armstrong raise funds to buy the Tour de France itself. (The effort never went anywhere.)

Mr. Weisel’s name has occasionally come up in connection with accusations of doping on the team.

The wife of the famed cyclist Greg LeMond, Kathy, reportedly testified under oath in a deposition in 2006 that she had been told by one of Mr. Armstrong’s mechanics that Mr. Weisel, along with Nike, paid $500,000 though a Swiss bank account to the honorary president of the International Cycling Union to silence a drug test Mr. Armstrong purportedly failed in 1999.

Nike has vehemently denied the contention. So far, Mr. Weisel has not commented publicly.

When Floyd Landis, one of Mr. Armstrong’s former teammates, tested positive in 2006, he denied using performance-enhancing drugs under pressure from Mr. Armstrong. Soon after, Mr. Weisel set up the Floyd Fairness Fund with some of Tailwind’s co-owners to help pay his legal bills. Mr. Landis later confessed to doping in 2010.

Mr. Weisel, a longtime athlete who was a champion speed skater as a teenager, became a cycling enthusiast in the 1980s and took up racing himself. Sports dominated his life: he often said that he liked to hire athletes to work for him at the bank because of their competitive instincts. He was also the chairman of the United States Ski Team Foundation. In 1987, while still working as a banker, he started Montgomery Sports, to begin his first cycling team. In the early 1990s the team was called Subaru-Montgomery; it later became Montgomery-Bell (Bell Sports was a client that he took public) and then was renamed for the Postal Service. (Yahoo, another client, was also a sponsor of the team.)

According to a biography of Mr. Weisel, “Capital Instincts: Life as an Entrepreneur, Financier and Athlete,” he invested more than $5 million in the early teams and lost money on the investment. Mr. Armstrong was one of Mr. Weisel’s early riders for the Subaru-Montgomery team. He later left the team to join the Motorola team. After his bout with cancer, Mr. Armstrong joined what was the Postal Service team in 1998.

Tyler Hamilton, another former teammate of Mr. Armstrong, told “60 Minutes” that the team was pushing performance-enhancing drugs on its cyclists long before Mr. Armstrong battled cancer and then in 1998 rejoined the team.

“I remember seeing some of the stronger guys in the team getting handed these white lunch bags,” Mr. Hamilton said on “60 Minutes” about when he joined the team in 1995. “So finally I, you know, started puttin’ two and two together and you know, basically there were doping products in those white lunch bags.”

Given how widespread the doping now appears to have been on the Postal Service team based on testimony of 11 teammates, and charges against the team’s director and several of its doctors, you wonder how much due diligence its founding banker did on the most prominent deal of his career.

A version of this article appeared in print on 01/15/2013, on page B1 of the NewYork edition with the headline: The Banker Who Put Much Faith In Armstrong.
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An Anaheim woman demands respect for her neighborhood









Yesenia Rojas, vibrant in her purple shawl, sang with a voice so powerful it rose above the rest of the procession as they shuffled down the damp Anaheim sidewalk.


"Era mexicana. Era mexicana," they sang with a statue of Our Lady of Guadalupe hoisted high, candlelight and street lamps illuminating their way. "Madrecita de los mexicanos."


The singsong serenade lauds the patroness, the mother of all Mexicans.








On this drizzly evening, Rojas led the group down Anna Drive, where she and her family have made their home.


In a city often defined by Disneyland and elegant sports venues, this street of working-class Latino immigrants has become an avatar of a lesser-known, voiceless Anaheim, one riddled with poverty and gangs.


When police shot and killed a 25-year-old alleged gang member who lived on Anna Drive, it stoked what had been a growing fire in the city. It was the latest in a spate of police shootings last year, which inflamed anger with law enforcement into a larger sense of resentment over ethnic and class fissures that divide Orange County's largest city.


Unrest — amplified by Occupy-connected protesters from outside the city — gripped Anaheim for days after the July shooting, followed by weeks of heated City Council meetings.


The wave of protesters demanding change has washed away, but Rojas has emerged in its wake. The 35-year-old mother of six, with short, wavy dark hair and a small frame that belies her force of will, has taken it upon herself to become the voice of Anna Drive.


Her family lives in a one-bedroom apartment just yards from where Manuel Diaz was shot that summer day. Rojas' 14-year-old daughter saw Diaz's body and has been traumatized since. Her mother can't let that go.


"I thought about leaving, and so did my husband, because of the children," she said. "But I said no. Because, first of all, we don't need to fear anyone, not even the police. The biggest thing right now is to stay on our feet and make things happen as a community. If we all leave, things won't change. They'll keep trampling us and humiliating us."


Rojas has a vision for her community that would seem bold if her wishes weren't so simple: She imagines playgrounds and community centers and political representation. But most of all, she sees respect for Anna Drive.


She balances two jobs, but she makes time for her community. She bends the ears of politicians. She organizes rallies encouraging her neighbors to register to vote and head to the polls. She plans events that she hopes will draw together a community that has grown accustomed to seeing itself as the backdrop of news cameras trying to highlight the city's ills.


And on this night, dozens gathered to pray a rosario in the tight courtyard outside her apartment, where the statue of the Virgin rested on an altar of roses and carnations.


As sirens echoed in the distance, the crowd stayed late into the night. They sang, they danced, they sipped cinnamon-spiced coffee.


And they prayed, petitioning the Virgin Mother for peace and for guidance.


"This is the community," Rojas said. "These are the people of Anna Drive."


::


Anna Drive, a collection of squat, modest apartment buildings, horseshoes off of a busy thoroughfare. On any given day, it pulses with life: children whipping down the sidewalk on scooters and skateboards, older boys tussling with one another and nanas and tatas watching it all unfold from chairs in their frontyards.


The street is clogged with cars and the vending truck that always seems to be parked along the same slice of curb, hawking snacks, produce and spices to the families who live on this stretch of tidy apartments and small, fenced-in lawns.


Rojas came to Anna Drive about a year ago, moving her family into the tight but comfortable apartment, its walls lined with family photographs. She was born in the Mexican state of Guanajuato, but she has lived much of her life in the flatlands of Anaheim. Her mother has lived in the same apartment, just a few blocks away, for decades.





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Live at Detroit Auto Show — Day 1


In years past, Chrysler would kick off the Detroit show with some utterly outrageous spectacle.



To introduce the new Ram, they corralled a few hundred head of cattle, marching them down Washington Blvd. in front of Cobo Hall, complete with cowboys leading the heard. The previous year, the head of Jeep drove a Wrangler through one of the hall’s windows to introduce the latest version of their rough-and-tumble off-roader.



How times have changed.



At today’s opening press conference, Jeep showed off a mildly refreshed Grand Cherokee (now with diesel power) and a few rehashed crossovers with new grilles and trim. No pyrotechnics. No laser-projected waterfall. Just a bit of awkward pomp and circumstance, which speaks volumes about where Detroit’s been and where it is today.


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CBS orders untitled Jim Gaffigan project to pilot






LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – CBS has ordered an untitled Jim Gaffigan project to pilot, the network announced on Friday.


Much like FX’s “Louie,” the proposed single-camera series sounds as if it will be largely autobiographical on the stand-up comic’s life.






Executive produced and written by both Gaffigan and Peter Tolan (“Rescue Me”), Gaffigan will star as the happily married and harried father of five living in New York City.


Gaffigan’s manager, Alex Murray, will also serve as an executive producer on the Sony Television production, along with Michael Wimer of Tolan’s Fedora Entertainment.


Gaffigan has starred in a number of television and film projects over the years, including TBS’ “My Boys,” but most recently won an Emmy for his 2012 comedy album “Mr. Universe.”


His newest book, “Dad is Fat,” hits shelves this May.


TV News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Susan Nolen-Hoeksema, Psychologist Who Studied Depression in Women, Dies at 53





Susan Nolen-Hoeksema, a psychologist and writer whose work helped explain why women are twice as prone to depression as men and why such low moods can be so hard to shake, died on Jan. 2 in New Haven. She was 53.







Andrew Sacks

Susan Nolen-Hoeksema at the University of Michigan in 2003. Dr. Nolen-Hoeksema's research showed that women were more prone to ruminate, or dwell on the sources of problems rather than solutions, more than men.







Her death followed heart surgery to correct a congenitally weak valve, said her husband, Richard Nolen-Hoeksema.


Dr. Nolen-Hoeksema, a professor at Yale University, began studying depression in the 1980s, a time of great excitement in psychiatry and psychology. New drugs like Prozac were entering the market; novel talking therapies were proving effective, too, particularly cognitive behavior therapy, in which people learn to defuse upsetting thoughts by questioning their basis.


Her studies, first in children and later in adults, exposed one of the most deceptively upsetting of these patterns: rumination, the natural instinct to dwell on the sources of problems rather than their possible solutions. Women were more prone to ruminate than men, the studies found, and in a landmark 1987 paper she argued that this difference accounted for the two-to-one ratio of depressed women to depressed men.


She later linked rumination to a variety of mood and behavior problems, including anxiety, eating disorders and substance abuse.


“The way I think she’d put it is that, when bad things happen, women brood — they’re cerebral, which can feed into the depression,” said Martin Seligman, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, who oversaw her doctoral work. “Men are more inclined to act, to do something, plan, beat someone up, play basketball.”


Dr. Seligman added, “She was the leading figure in sex differences in depression of her generation.”


Dr. Nolen-Hoeksema wrote several books about her research for general readers, including “Women Who Think Too Much: How to Break Free of Overthinking and Reclaim Your Life.” These books described why rumination could be so corrosive — it is deeply distracting; it tends to highlight negative memories — and how such thoughts could be alleviated.


Susan Kay Nolen was born on May 22, 1959, in Springfield, Ill., to John and Catherine Nolen. Her father ran a construction business, where her mother was the office manager; Susan was the eldest of three children.


She entered Illinois State University before transferring to Yale. She graduated summa cum laude in 1982 with a degree in psychology.


After earning a Ph.D. in psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, she joined the faculty at Stanford. She later moved to the University of Michigan, before returning to Yale in 2004.


Along the way she published scores of studies and a popular textbook. In 2003 she became the editor of the Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, an influential journal.


Dr. Nolen-Hoeksema moved smoothly between academic work and articles and books for the general reader.


“I think part of what allowed her to move so easily between those two worlds was that she was an extremely clear thinker, and an extremely clear writer,” said Marcia K. Johnson, a psychology professor and colleague at Yale.


Dr. Nolen-Hoeksema lived in Bethany, Conn. In addition to her husband, a science writer, she is survived by a son, Michael; her brothers, Jeff and Steve; and her father, John.


“Over the past four decades women have experienced unprecedented growth in independence and opportunities,” Dr. Nolen-Hoeksema wrote in 2003, adding, “We have many reasons to be happy and confident.”


“Yet when there is any pause in our daily activities,” she continued, “many of us are flooded with worries, thoughts and emotions that swirl out of control, sucking our emotions and energy down, down, down. We are suffering from an epidemic of overthinking.”


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DealBook: Swatch to Buy Watch and Jewelry Business of Harry Winston

The Swatch Group agreed on Monday to acquire the watch and jewelery business of Harry Winston, which plans to shift its focus to its diamond mining activities.

Swatch, the world’s largest watch maker, will pay $750 million in cash for Harry Winston. It will also assume about $250 million of debt. The Harry Winston Diamond Corporation will be renamed Dominion Diamond after the takeover.

For Swatch, the takeover adds a prominent brand regularly worn by Hollywood actresses to its already vast portfolio. Swatch owns not only its colorful plastic Swatch watches but also upscale names Blancpain and Omega. Swatch also controls the bulk of the sector’s watch movement production after buying several makers of components.

Swatch is paying about 23 times the estimated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of Harry Winston, said René Weber, a watch analyst at Bank Vontobel in Zurich, who welcomed the takeover. He said that price was high but justified, considering that Swatch has ample cash reserves. The purchase of Harry Winston also comes after Swatch ended in 2011 a partnership with Tiffany, another luxury jeweler.

“It is a great fit,” Mr. Weber said, adding a strong jewelery brand which “fills the gap in the portfolio” of Swatch. Swatch shares were up 4 percent in midday trading on the Swiss stock exchange.

Swatch is a listed company, but its management and about a third of its equity remain in the hands of the family of Nicolas Hayek, who founded the company and helped revive the whole Swiss watch industry in the 1980s, in the face of stiff Japanese competition, by starting the inexpensive and highly successful Swatch plastic watch. Mr. Hayek died in 2010.

Nayla Hayek, his daughter and chairwoman of the company, said in a statement on Monday that the takeover of Harry Winston “brilliantly complements the prestige segment” of her company. “Diamonds are still a girl’s best friend,” she added, in reference to a song that mentioned Harry Winston and was made famous by Marilyn Monroe in the movie “Gentlemen Prefer Blondes.”

Robert Gannicott, chairman and chief executive of the Harry Winston Diamond Corporation, said that the sale “will leave us well equipped to realize upstream opportunities in an environment where cash has become a strategic resource while preserving and expanding our relationship with the downstream diamond business.” Last November, the company acquired another diamond mine in Canada, called Ekati, from BHP Billiton.

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Egyptian court orders new trial for Mubarak









CAIRO—





An Egyptian court granted an appeal by former President Hosni Mubarak and ordered a new trial into the killings of hundreds of protesters during the 2011 uprising, a move certain to inflame the political unrest that has upset the country’s democratic transition.


The ruling was a victory for the ailing Mubarak and his Interior minister, Habib Adli, who also won his appeal. Both men, who had been sentenced to life in prison, face other criminal charges and are likely to remain in detention until a new trial in the deaths by security forces of more than 800 protesters.





“The previous ruling was unfair and illegal,” said Yousry Abdelrazeg, one of Mubarak’s lawyers, who accused the judge in the first trial of political bias. “The case was just a mess and there was no evidence against Mubarak.”


No date has been set for the new trial.


The court’s decision comes amid turmoil over an Islamist-backed constitution and outrage over the expanded powers of Islamist President Mohamed Morsi. It means a bloody chapter in Egypt’s 2011 revolt will be revisited with the prospect that Mubarak, whose police state ruled for 30 years, may be absolved in a case that deepened the nation’s political differences and impassioned the Arab world.


Mubarak was convicted in June of not preventing the deaths of hundreds of protesters attacked by police and snipers during the uprising, which began on Jan. 25, 2011, and ended 18 days later when he stepped aside and the military seized power.


Mubarak argued that he had not ordered the crackdown and was unaware of the extent of the violence. A recently completed government-ordered investigation into the killings, however, reportedly found that Mubarak had monitored the deadly response by security forces in Tahrir Square via a live television feed.


The appeals court ruling came a day after prosecutors announced an investigation into allegations that Mubarak, 84, received about $1 million in illicit gifts from Al Ahram, the country’s leading state-owned newspaper. The former president has reportedly been in a military hospital since December after he fell in a prison bathroom and injured himself.


Last year’s trial riveted the nation with images of the aging Mubarak wheeled into the defendant’s cage on a stretcher, his arms crossed and his eyes hidden behind sunglasses.


jeffrey.fleishman@latimes.com  


(Special correspondent Reem Abdellatif contributed to this report)


 


 


 


 


 


 





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<em>Firefly</em> Fan Tries to Retroactively Save Dead Character With NASA Data


Spoiler warning: Firefly ended over 10 years ago and it’s been 7 years since its subsequent film, Serenity, came out, so the spoiler statute of limitations is officially up. Proceed at your own risk.


Like many fans of the Joss Whedon space western Firefly, Kyle Hill was shocked by the end of the Serenity movie, when fan-favorite character Wash (Alan Tudyk) was unceremoniously impaled by a Reaver harpoon. Unlike most fans, Hill — a research assistant with a degree in Environmental Engineering and a contributor at Scientific American — decided to try and rewrite (fictional) history by proving that Wash’s death was scientifically impossible, using the power of math, physics and fandom. His article originally appeared online at Scientific American, and Wired publishes this updated version with permission.



I was late to Firefly. Nearly 10 years after the show first aired and then was subsequently cancelled, I holed up in my room, coffee and external hard drive in hand, aiming to blaze through one of the most beloved sci-fi series.


A mix of science fiction and “spaghetti-western” genres, Firefly was wonderful. It certainly awakened the fanboy in me, and I quickly understood why my girlfriend envied me for being able to watch the series for the first time.


It all ended abruptly, due to early cancellation, with the last episodes of Firefly barely answering any central questions or exploring the rich universe that had been so lovingly crafted by creator Joss Whedon. It was to my delight to learn that in 2005 there was a full-length movie in response to public (and private) outcries for more of Serenity and her crew.


Watching Serenity let me spend a bit more time in the ‘verse, and the film thankfully resolved a number of outstanding loops justwaiting to be closed. But the forced end of Firefly also forced Joss Whedon’s hand. He put in scenes that would only have appeared in a last hurrah like Serenity. One scene in particular shook me, like the unexpected sight of a Reaver ship. It’s a scene that drove me to NASA forums and technical reports, glass manufacturers, my calculator, and eventually to this post.


Late in Serenity, after crash-landing at the mysterious base of “Mr. Universe,” pilot Hoban “Wash” Washburne meets his end at the tip of a Reaver spear. The immediacy of the violence, and his wife Zoe’s touching reaction, kept my mouth agape well into the next few minutes of the film. One of my favorite characters just died, as Firefly died. I couldn’t stand it. I had to be sure.


What if the Reaver spear couldn’t plausibly make it through the forward windows of Serenity? The movie may have been set in the future, but we too have built spacecraft with windows, and they are made to withstand impacts. If I could prove that a modern shuttle window (assuming that a future window would be even better) could withstand the impact that killed Wash, I could have the ultimate in fanboy closure: the movie is “wrong,” and my version of the story lives on.


Objects in Space


In terrestrial situations, a speck of paint is less than harmless. In space, it’s deadly. Travelling at a blistering 10,000 meters per second in orbit, the equations deem it lethal. It becomes a “hypervelocity” bullet.


Our spacecraft obviously must account for this deadly debris. Tens of thousands of pieces of extraterrestrial trash litter the orbit of Earth [PDF], meaning that a shuttle’s final impact could come from an errant hex nut. Shuttles today are outfitted with shielding to prevent such disasters, and feature two-and-a-half inch thick windows—the thickest pieces of glass ever produced in the optical quality for see-through viewing.


The largest impact to a shuttle window occurred when a fleck of paint struck STS-92—a flight to the International Space Station. A shuttle window has never been penetrated by a hypervelocity impact, but it doesn’t have to be. A deformation large enough could eventually cause window failure upon repeated take-offs and re-entries.


After engineers examined the crater in the window of STS-92, the shape that best explained the damage was a sort of miniaturized plate. But to begin making comparisons, I’ll consider the fleck of paint to be a similarly sized metal sphere. This will bring the numbers in line with the hypervelocity testing that NASA has already conductBased on the size and the speed of the fleck that hit STS-92, I calculated that the window weathered an impact with around 20 Joules of kinetic energy—equivalent to four milligrams of TNT or a decently thrown baseball. It created more than enough damage to warrant a window replacement. And such replacements from serious impacts are commonplace. Robert Lee Hotz notes in the Wall Street Journalthat “NASA shuttle engineers have replaced the spacecraft’s debris-pitted windows after almost every flight since since 1981, at a cost of about $40,000 per window.”


 



Such little flecks can be catastrophes. An orbiter unlucky enough to be hit by anything much larger than the paint chip that hit STS-92 is in for some trouble. Debris measuring five centimeters in diameter packs the punch of a bus collision. Any larger than that and we begin making comparisons to sticks of dynamite.


The shuttle windows are tough, to be sure, surviving nearly 1,400 impacts intact over 43 sampled missions, but are they strong enough to save Wash? Tiny particles are elevated to terrifying status because of their ridiculous speeds, not their mass. Conversely, the Reaver spear that killed Wash was larger, but moving much more slowly. A few assumptions and some physics equations would determine if I could save him.


I Am A Leaf on the Wind…


To get the general dimensions of the spear that killed Wash, I had to (unfortunately) go back to the scene in question, excruciatingly slowing down an emotional moment to be replayed over and over.


Diving back into Serenity, I used an earlier Reaver chase scene to guesstimate the spear size and speed. If Reavers shoot spears slow enough to be dodged (which they do), the spear that kills Wash can’t be moving much faster than a Major League fast-ball, putting the upper limit on speed around 100 miles per hour (45 m/s). This is orders of magnitude slower than the hypervelocity impacts that a shuttle deals with, but the spear is thousands of times more massive than a fleck of paint. Assuming it’s fashioned out of an “average” metal, and given its size, I’d guess it’s around 100-200 pounds (45-90 kg).


Kinetic energy is easy enough to calculate. The kinetic energy of a moving object is one-half of its mass multiplied by the square of its velocity.





This equation gives the Reaver spear a frightening 45,500 Joules at the low end. This is over 3,700 times the energy of the largest recorded impact to a space shuttle window — equivalent to a detonation of a pencil made of TNT or a medium sized anvil dropped on it.



What are the risks? via Aerospace.org



Based on hypervelocity testing undertaken by NASA, the Reaver spear would be like an aluminum sphere with a one-centimeter diameter hitting the window at 10 kilometers per second (assuming that the tip of the spear is comparable to a 1cm diameter point). Seeing that the damage threshold for a shuttle window based on this testing is 0.004 centimeters, my hopes quickly vanished. With this kind of energy, the Reaver spear could pierce a shuttle’s wing, its thermal protection tiles, or even its crew cabin.


The math doesn’t lie—Wash didn’t stand a chance.


Watch How I Soar…


I thought I had found the perfect fanboy out. The windows in Serenity looked flimsy and thin, surely not something a space-faring craft would be outfitted with. If the windows were anything like what we use to traverse the ‘verse today, perhaps all that would have happened is a jolt of fright from a deflected Reaver spear, or so I hoped.


But even delving through a hundred page NASA technical report [PDF] on impact shielding couldn’t ease my psyche.


Now, this is at its core a fanboy rant. No matter what I found, Wash dies in the movie. It’s part of the larger story and serves as a plot point, not a meaningless killing-off. But I selfishly wanted closure; I needed to resolve the dissonance between a character’s death and the fact that we know he wouldn’t have died if the networks saw better numbers from Firefly.


Maybe this is a testament to the enduring qualities of the show. To create characters important enough, and in only fifteen short stories, to warrant hours of research and calculation that ultimately proves useless in the larger story is an outcome of a great narrative. It’s typical of a fan base that will still pack a Comic-Con panel ten years after the airing of the show.


In the end, I like the story better this way. It takes a great narrative to make someone care so much about a character that he takes real world steps to resolve his own dissonance. If I could have ‘proved’ that Wash wouldn’t have been killed, a whole can of worms would open. What about the fact that Serenity was an old ship with sub-optimal gear? What about space-age technologies like super-strong window polymers? The scene obviously resonated with people (especially me), and the fact that I failed is a better story than a discussion of faulty film physics.


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PHOTOS: Miss America winners, yesterday and today






Miss America is in a New York state of mind.


Mallory Hagan of New York City won the beauty pageant Saturday night after tap dancing to James Brown’s “Get Up Off of That Thing” and answering a question about whether armed guards belong in grade schools by saying we should not fight violence with violence.






By capturing the crown, Hagan receives a $ 50,000 scholarship and a yearlong run as an advocate and role model.


Here, in images, is a look at some of the present and past winners:


Entertainment News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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